Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: valuations, TIPS and the narratives that just got ruined.... 1) Valuations Matter, but not the Way Wall Street Says I published a new research piece this week discussing [...]

Every few months a PE ratio chart circulates implying that equities are so expensive that you need to get out of the market. These charts typically circle around 3 or 4 independent sample periods with the Nasdaq bubble doing most [...]

Every few years someone writes the obituary for the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio. Rates are too low, so bonds can't do their job. Rates are rising, so bonds get crushed. Stocks fall substantially, they're never coming back. Stocks and bonds are [...]

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend: jobs, bonds and tools. 1) Is AI Now Killing Jobs? Well that was a weird employment report on Friday. Actual payrolls came in at 29K against a 90K [...]

About ten years ago I asked whether savers deserve a risk free return. Rates were near zero, and a lot of people felt savers were being punished. My answer back then was mostly right, but for the wrong reasons. The [...]

Here's a special research report on a timely topic. The recent rise in interest rates and US government debt surpassing $40T has sparked worries about sovereign default. The logical response to these fears is that today's interest rates aren't actually [...]

The headline isn't clickbait. It's true. But you're probably not gonna die from the things the financial media says are scary. Here are some of the financial causes of death I think I am thinking about this week. 1) AI [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) The Robots Are Really Coming. This week felt different for me. I've been very optimistic about AI for the last few years, but I feel like I [...]

Here's a little weekend reading for you and three things I think I've been thinking about this week. If you prefer video I did an interview with JD Durkin at the NYSE this week. It starts at minute 17 and [...]

I apologize for the recent hiatus. In the last 15 years I've written over 10,000 posts and I've never missed a month. But I have to admit - after publishing the new book, rolling out the new strategies, the new [...]