Here are some things I think I am thinking about at the end of this weekend. 1) Team Transitory Won (NOT)! Economists Explaining Recent Inflation to Middle Class Consumers It's been over 3 years since I explained why the term [...]
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this week: 1) That BIG Employment Revision. The biggest news of the week was the -818K employment revision for 2024. This was the biggest revision since 2009 and very large [...]
Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Three Terrible Ideas That Won't Die. The Great Financial Crisis was wonderful because it got people interested in economics. And it was terrible in that it convinced [...]
Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) The Panicky Emotions of Short-Termism. What a wild week for the market. After closing down 2.5% on Monday following the panicky response to the previous Friday’s job [...]
I was on Schwab TV Wednesday discussing the economy, the Fed and the impact on portfolios going forward. Summary: The market got ahead of itself with the "soft landing" narrative when, in reality, the Fed is far from being able [...]
Just a week ago the market narrative was all about "soft landing", but after Friday's labor report the narrative is quickly shifting to "emergency landing". Odds of a September rate cut are now 100% and odds of a 50 bps [...]
Here are three things I think I am thinking about to start the week. Let's talk about three big asset classes.... 1) Commodities and an inflation resurgence. I think I've had a decent track record on inflation over the last [...]
One of the most common questions we get is "should I be worried about the death of the US Dollar?" It's a worthwhile question and certainly not a zero probability event. In fact, as Keynes famously said, "in the long-run [...]
The combination of the Great Financial Crisis period and the Covid era created some of the most interesting economic experiments in history. They also resulted in some of the worst narratives in finance and economics. Here are three bad narratives [...]
Thursday's CPI report was a big downside surprise as more signs of disinflation appeared across the economy. Core CPI rose 0.06% in June which brought the annualized rate to 3.27%. That's the lowest rate since 2021. The big driver in [...]