Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Disinflation is Still Entrenched. This week's CPI report showed more of the same trends we've been seeing in the last year. The reading came in a touch [...]

The US economy has been on a tear versus every other G20 economy over the last 10 years and especially in the last few years. While high interest rates are slowing most other developed economies the US has stayed relatively [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) Pension Funds Underperforming the S&P 500. Here's an article criticizing the poor returns in the San Francisco pension system. The fund has a target return of 7.5%, [...]

One of the big puzzles of the last few years has been consumer sentiment. The US economy and stock market have outperformed virtually every global economy and market. Wages have grown nicely in the last few years. And yet sentiment [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend: 1) High Yield Savings Accounts are Bad. In the aftermath of the Fed's rate cut "high yield" savings accounts are notifying their customers about their own decline in [...]

Here are some things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) Are Short-term Rates Forecasting a Recession? Here's a chart that's been floating around a lot and I think it communicates a very common myth about how the [...]

Here is the ONE thing I think I am thinking THREE times this week. If you prefer video you can also see my thoughts on the big rate cut from my interview on Schwab Network in which I discussed the [...]

The big question of the week is 25 or 50? No, we're not talking about the age of Leonardo DiCaprio's next girlfriend (obviously 25). We don't have time to think about about girlfriends (or boyfriends) because we're too busy thinking [...]

You're getting this on a Friday, but when we GAAP adjust the holiday week and Cullen writing this on a Thursday night it basically equals a midweek note. 1) What Deradicalized You? I really liked this question from Joe Weisenthal [...]

There's a popular joke in financial circles that says you can't eat risk adjusted returns. In other words, while it might be interesting mental gymnastics to calculate things like a Sharpe Ratio the statistical output isn't something you eat. In [...]