How to Use This Tool

  • Simulates how different return sequences affect portfolio sustainability.
  • Monte Carlo: OFF = single deterministic path; ON = random paths with success rate and percentile band.
  • Defined Duration Buckets: allocates across four time-horizon buckets. Withdrawals waterfall from the shortest bucket first; each year buckets rebalance bottom-up, but the equity bucket only refills the next bucket after a positive return year.
  • Allocation Mode: size buckets by Years of spending or by Percent of portfolio.
  • Compare Reversed: in deterministic mode, overlays the same shocks flipped to the end of the horizon.
  • Withdrawals should be net of income, and inflate each year.

Sequence of Return Risk Simulator BETA

Monte Carlo
OFF = single deterministic path
Defined Duration Buckets
OFF = withdrawals drawn from full portfolio
Assumptions
Bucket Configuration
B10-3Y (Cash)
yrs % $80,000 @ %
B23-7Y (Short Bonds)
yrs % $120,000 @ %
B37-15Y (Intermediate)
yrs % $200,000 @ %
B415Y+ (Equities)
60% $600,000 @ %
Portfolio Projection
30-year horizon Deterministic