Discipline Funds Tool Suite
Sequence of Return Risk Simulator BETA
The order of your returns can matter as much as the average. Drop a market shock early or late in retirement and see what it does to a withdrawal plan, with or without Defined Duration® buckets.
How this works
- Deterministic mode runs one steady path with your shocks dropped in. Monte Carlo adds random volatility and shows a success rate plus a 10th to 90th percentile band.
- Defined Duration buckets split the portfolio across four time horizons. Spending comes out of the shortest bucket first.
- Each year the buckets refill from the bottom up, but the equity bucket only refills Bucket 3 after a positive year. That's the point. You don't sell stocks into a drawdown.
- Size the buckets by years of spending or by percent of the portfolio.
- Compare reversed flips your shocks to the end of the horizon so you can see sequence risk directly.
- Enter withdrawals net of other income like Social Security. They grow with inflation each year.
Put this to work
Don't leave your retirement to the order of returns
A bad market in your first few years of withdrawals can do permanent damage. Defined Duration® plans match your near-term spending to bonds and T-Bills sized to cover it, so you're never forced to sell stocks in a drawdown. The money you won't need for decades gets the time it needs to recover and grow.
For educational purposes only. Results are hypothetical, based on the assumptions you enter, and do not reflect actual investment results or guarantee future outcomes. This tool is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Discipline Funds.