How to Use This Tool
- Simulates how different return sequences affect portfolio sustainability.
- Monte Carlo: OFF = single deterministic path; ON = random paths with success rate and percentile band.
- Defined Duration Buckets: allocates across four time-horizon buckets. Withdrawals waterfall from the shortest bucket first; each year buckets rebalance bottom-up, but the equity bucket only refills the next bucket after a positive return year.
- Allocation Mode: size buckets by Years of spending or by Percent of portfolio.
- Compare Reversed: in deterministic mode, overlays the same shocks flipped to the end of the horizon.
- Withdrawals should be net of income, and inflate each year.
Sequence of Return Risk Simulator BETA
Monte Carlo
OFF = single deterministic path
Defined Duration Buckets
OFF = withdrawals drawn from full portfolio
Assumptions
Bucket Configuration
B10-3Y (Cash)
yrs
%
$80,000
@ %
B23-7Y (Short Bonds)
yrs
%
$120,000
@ %
B37-15Y (Intermediate)
yrs
%
$200,000
@ %
B415Y+ (Equities)
60%
$600,000
@ %
Portfolio Projection