Discipline Funds Tool Suite
Bond Scenario Tool
See how a bond or bond fund behaves when rates move, and why your time horizon matters more than the rate path.
1The Bond
One bond, held as it ages toward maturity.
2The Rate Path
Prices each bond off the current Treasury curve as it ages.
Results
Loading scenarioAnnualized Return
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Total Return
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Vs. Rates Unchanged
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annualized difference
Max Drawdown
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Macaulay Duration
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the break-even horizon
Modified Duration
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% price move per 1% yield
Convexity
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curvature cushion
Starting Yield
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Swipe the table sideways to see every horizon.
Data table and CSV
How the model works
Pricing. Every price comes from discounting the full cash flows, not a duration estimate. Individual Bond buys one bond and holds it as it rolls toward maturity. Bond Fund keeps a constant maturity by rolling into a new par bond each month, so its income resets to whatever yields are doing, the way a fund's income does.
Curve rolldown. With rolldown on, each bond is priced off the current Treasury curve at its remaining maturity, and your rate path shifts the whole curve up or down in parallel. "Rates unchanged" then means the curve keeps today's shape, which is a scenario, not a forecast. When the curve slopes up, aging bonds roll into lower yields and pick up price. When it's inverted they roll into higher yields and lose it. With rolldown off, one yield is used throughout.
Reinvestment. Coupons are reinvested at the bond's own yield, the standard total return index convention.
Curve rolldown. With rolldown on, each bond is priced off the current Treasury curve at its remaining maturity, and your rate path shifts the whole curve up or down in parallel. "Rates unchanged" then means the curve keeps today's shape, which is a scenario, not a forecast. When the curve slopes up, aging bonds roll into lower yields and pick up price. When it's inverted they roll into higher yields and lose it. With rolldown off, one yield is used throughout.
Reinvestment. Coupons are reinvested at the bond's own yield, the standard total return index convention.
Current Treasury Yields
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Nominal
Real (TIPS)
Breakeven
Tap a row to load it. Treasury fills the nominal yield. TIPS fills the real yield and uses the breakeven as the CPI assumption. Rows of 1 year or longer also set the maturity.
| Maturity | Nominal | Real | Breakeven |
|---|
Source: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve and Daily Par Real Yield Curve, end of day. Breakeven is nominal minus real, the market's implied average inflation rate.
Work With Us
Rates move. Your timeline doesn't have to.
The lesson in this tool is simple. When a bond's duration lines up with when you need the money, rate moves matter a lot less. That's how we build every portfolio.
- Custom T-Bill and bond ladders matched to your spending needs
- Defined Duration® portfolios built around your real time horizons
- Flat fee planning with direct access to our team
Hypothetical illustration for educational purposes only. Results are model estimates, not the actual or expected returns of any security, and do not reflect fees, taxes, credit risk or trading costs. Nothing here is investment advice. Discipline Funds is the DBA of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser.