Retirement Planning Simulator | Discipline Funds
Retirement Planning Simulator BETA

Will your portfolio fund your retirement?

Enter your household details and the projection updates automatically. The model runs your wages, savings, Social Security, required distributions and taxes year by year, then stress tests the plan against bad markets. Every result is shown in today's dollars so the numbers mean something.

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Calculating

Probability of success
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Monte Carlo
Portfolio at retirement
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Funded ratio
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Assets vs PV of net spending
Ending balance
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Max sustainable spending
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Retirement $/yr that lasts to plan age
Lifetime taxes
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Federal, state and payroll
First RMD
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Roth conversions
$0
Total converted

Projected balances by account

Year-end balances in today's dollars.

Liabilities by time horizon

Present value of net spending needs (spending minus Social Security and pension), grouped into Defined Duration® buckets.

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Sequence of returns stress test

Same plan, but markets fall in the first year of retirement.

Base case

Money lasts ton/a
Ending balancen/a
Balance 10 yrs inn/a

Stress case

Money lasts ton/a
Ending balancen/a
Balance 10 yrs inn/a

Year by year detail

All figures in today's dollars.

YearAgePhaseWagesSavingsSocial Sec.PensionRMDRoth Conv.WithdrawalsSpendingTaxesTaxableTax-DeferredRothTotal
Methodology and assumptions
  • Today's dollars. Every input in dollars (except a pension amount) is entered in today's dollars and grown with your inflation assumption. Results are deflated back to today's dollars unless you toggle nominal.
  • Timing. Cash flows happen at the start of each year and investment growth is applied to what remains. RMDs use the prior year-end balance.
  • Federal taxes. One unified tax calculation per year combines wages, withdrawals, RMDs, Roth conversions, pension income, taxable Social Security (0/50/85% provisional income tiers) and capital gains. 2026 brackets and deductions come from IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32 and are indexed by your inflation input. The $6,000 senior deduction is applied for 2026 through 2028 with its income phase out. NIIT applies above the statutory $250k/$200k thresholds, which are not indexed.
  • Contributions. 2026 limits per IRS: $24,500 401(k) deferral, $8,000 catch up at 50+, $11,250 at ages 60 to 63, $7,500 IRA plus $1,100 catch up. Traditional IRA contributions are assumed deductible. Mandatory Roth catch up rules for high earners are not modeled.
  • RMDs. Start at 73 for those born 1951 to 1959 and 75 for those born 1960 or later (SECURE 2.0), using the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table. Tax-deferred assets are treated as one household pool owned by you, rolling to your spouse at your death.
  • Survivor. After the first death, filing status switches to single, the survivor keeps the larger Social Security benefit, and spending drops to your survivor percentage.
  • Early withdrawals. Tax-deferred withdrawals before age 60 (a proxy for 59½) carry the 10% penalty. Roth withdrawals are assumed penalty free.
  • Monte Carlo. Annual returns are drawn from a lognormal distribution matching each account's average and volatility. Accounts move together in each simulated year, since in practice your accounts hold similar assets and crash together. Inflation is held constant.
  • Not modeled. IRMAA Medicare surcharges, AMT, itemized deductions, state specific rules, Social Security trust fund changes, and changes in tax law after 2026.
Discipline Funds

Want a real plan built around your timeline?

A calculator gives you a ballpark. We start with your actual liabilities, map them to specific time horizons and build a Defined Duration® portfolio that funds near-term spending with safe assets so a bad market doesn't derail your retirement. Let's talk about your plan.

This simulator is a beta educational tool provided by Orcam Financial Group, LLC (DBA Discipline Funds), an SEC registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Results are hypothetical projections based on the assumptions you enter, are not guarantees of future results, and do not reflect actual investment results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Tax calculations are simplified estimates of federal rules as of 2026 and are not tax advice. Consult a qualified tax professional and your financial advisor before acting on any output. Past performance does not guarantee future results.